The S&P 500 moved higher on Wednesday ahead of a pivotal interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve that could mark the beginning of a new hiking cycle over the next few months.

The broad market index was up 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite
 added 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
 shed 101 points, or 0.2%.

Futures markets were pricing in a quarter-point hike for Wednesday with 92.9% odds, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Odds of an additional quarter-point hike were 39.1% for the Fed’s October meeting and 26.4% for the Fed’s December meeting. The current target rate range is 3.5% to 3.75%.

Brent Wilsey, chief investment officer of San Diego-based Wilsey Asset Management, said in a note on Wednesday that the Fed holding rates steady could have damaging ramifications.

“That could surprise stocks, and surprises are rarely received well in markets, and it could also damage the Fed’s credibility, and reignite concerns that the central bank is caving to political pressure to keep rates steady,” he said.